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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, Thursday, October 31, 2019

BEA 19-56

Personal Income and Outlays, September 2019

Personal income increased $50.2 billion (0.3 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $55.7 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $24.3 billion (0.2 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in September and Real PCE increased 0.2 percent. The PCE price index decreased less than 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased less than 0.1 percent.

	2019
	May	Jun.	Jul.	Aug.	Sep.
	Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:
Current dollars	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.5	0.3
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	0.3	0.4	0.2	0.6	0.3
Chained (2012) dollars	0.2	0.3	0.0	0.5	0.3
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
Current dollars	0.4	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.2
Chained (2012) dollars	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2
Price indexes:
PCE	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0
PCE, excluding food and energy	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0
Price indexes:	Percent change from month one year ago
PCE	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.3
PCE, excluding food and energy	1.5	1.6	1.7	1.8	1.7

The increase in personal income in September primarily reflected increases in personal interest income, farm proprietors' income, and government social benefits to persons (table 3).

BEA adjusted September wages and salaries downward by $1.9 billion (at an annual rate) to account for the United Automobile Workers work stoppage that began on September 16^th. This adjustment was necessary because the source data BEA primarily uses to estimate monthly wages and salaries – the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Employment Statistics survey – did not capture the strike's effects.

Farm proprietors' income increased $23.3 billion in August and $12.1 billion in September; payments associated with the Department of Agriculture's Market Facilitation Program were substantial contributors to both increases.

The $22.8 billion increase in real PCE in September reflected an increase of $18.4 billion in spending for goods and a $6.5 billion increase in spending for services (table 7). Within goods, new motor vehicles was the leading contributor to the increase. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending for health care. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays increased $23.0 billion in September (table 3). Personal saving was $1.38 trillion in September and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 8.3 percent (table 1).

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for July and August. The percent change from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below.

	Change from preceding month
	July				August
	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised
	(Billions of dollars)		(Percent)		(Billions of dollars)		(Percent)
Personal income:
Current dollars	23.6	21.2	0.1	0.1	73.5	87.5	0.4	0.5
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	42.0	39.7	0.3	0.2	77.7	92.2	0.5	0.6
Chained (2012) dollars	2.6	-0.9	0.0	0.0	65.8	80.3	0.4	0.5
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars	72.7	74.8	0.5	0.5	20.1	32.1	0.1	0.2
Chained (2012) dollars	34.5	35.3	0.3	0.3	13.9	26.0	0.1	0.2

Personal Income and Outlays Release Dates for 2020

December 2019	- January 31	April 2020	- May 29	August 2020	- October 1
January 2020	- February 28	May 2020	- June 26	September 2020	- October 30
February 2020	- March 27	June 2020	- July 31	October 2020	- November 25
March 2020	- April 30	July 2020	- August 28	November 2020	- December 23

Next release: November 27, 2019 at 10:00 A.M. EST
Personal Income and Outlays: October 2019

Full Release & Tables (PDF)

Tables Only (Excel)

Release Highlights (PDF)

Historical Comparison (PDF)

Personal Income

Brian Smith

(301) 278-9625

piniwd@bea.gov

PCE Services

Harvey Davis

301-278-9719

pce@bea.gov

Media (BEA)

Connie O'Connell

301-278-9003

Connie.OConnell@bea.gov

Resources

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NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

Definitions

Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.

Disposable personal income is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, "persons" who reside in the United States.

Personal outlays is the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments.

Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes.

The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.

Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at "market value." Also referred to as "nominal estimates" or as "current-price estimates."

Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.

For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.

Statistical conventions

Annual rates. Monthly and quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR). Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For detail, see the FAQ "Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?"

Month-to-month percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are not annualized.

Quarter-to-quarter percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual rates. For detail, see the FAQ "How is average annual growth calculated?"

Quantities and prices. Quantities, or "real" volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2012). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (months for monthly data, quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). For details on the calculation of quantity and price indexes, see Chapter 4: Estimating Methods in the NIPA Handbook.

Chained-dollar values are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2012) and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. In tables that display chained-dollar values, a "residual" line shows the difference between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.

List of Personal Income and Outlays News Release Tables

Table 1. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Months)

Table 2. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Years and Quarters)

Table 3. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period (Months)

Table 4. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change From Preceding Period (Years and Quarters)

Table 5. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change From Preceding Period (Months)

Table 6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change From Preceding Period (Years and Quarters)

Table 7. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product (Months)

Table 8. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product (Years and Quarters)

Table 9. Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Level and Percent Change From Preceding Period (Months)

Table 10. Real Disposable Personal Income and Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Percent Change From Month One Year Ago

Table 11. Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Percent Change From Month One Year Ago