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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 10:00 A.M. EST, WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 2020

BEA 20—60

Personal Income and Outlays, October 2020

Personal income decreased $130.1 billion (0.7 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $134.8 billion (0.8 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $70.9 billion (0.5 percent).

Real DPI decreased 0.8 percent in October and Real PCE increased 0.5 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index was unchanged from September. The PCE price index excluding food and energy was also unchanged (table 9).

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on October 2020 Personal Income and Outlays

The October estimate for personal income and outlays was impacted by the response to the spread of COVID-19. Federal economic recovery payments slowed as pandemic-related assistance programs continued to wind down. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income.

The decrease in personal income in October was led by a decrease in government social benefits (table 3). Within government social benefits, “other” social benefits decreased which primarily reflected a decrease in Lost Wages Supplemental Payments, a Federal Emergency Management Agency program that provides wage assistance to individuals impacted by the pandemic.

Offsetting the decrease in government social benefits were increases in compensation and proprietors’ income (led by farm). Within compensation, an increase in private wages and salaries was partly offset by a decrease in government wages and salaries, which decreased $8.4 billion in October, following a decrease of $8.2 billion in September and an increase of $22.8 billion in August. Temporary and intermittent decennial Census workers boosted government wages by $3.7 billion in October after adding $9.3 billion in September and $10.9 billion in August. Within farm proprietors’ income, there was an increase in payments under the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program related to supporting farmers and ranchers impacted by COVID-19.

	2020
	June.	July.	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.
	Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:
Current dollars	-1.1	0.9	-2.5	0.7	-0.7
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	-1.4	0.8	-2.9	0.7	-0.8
Chained (2012) dollars	-1.8	0.6	-3.3	0.6	-0.8
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
Current dollars	6.5	1.5	1.2	1.2	0.5
Chained (2012) dollars	5.9	1.2	0.9	1.1	0.5
Price indexes:
PCE	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0
PCE, excluding food and energy	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0
Price indexes:	Percent change from month one year ago
PCE	0.9	1.0	1.3	1.4	1.2
PCE, excluding food and energy	1.1	1.3	1.5	1.6	1.4

The $63.5 billion increase in real PCE in October reflected increases of $12.7 billion in spending for goods and $48.7 billion in spending for services (table 7). The leading contributor to the increase in spending for goods was recreational goods and vehicles (led by information processing equipment) based on Census Monthly Retail Trade Survey data. The leading contributor to the increase in spending for services were spending for health care (led by hospitals). Spending for health care was based on volume data for outpatient visits and revenue data. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays increased $67.5 billion in October (table 3). Personal saving was $2.38 trillion in October and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 13.6 percent (table 1).

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for April through September. For April through June, estimates for compensation, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance reflect the incorporation of the most recently available second-quarter wage and salary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE, are shown below.

	Change from preceding month
	August				September
	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised
	(Billions of dollars)		(Percent)		(Billions of dollars)		(Percent)
Personal income:
Current dollars	-496.0	-505.7	-2.5	-2.5	170.3	147.1	0.9	0.7
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	-525.5	-531.3	-2.9	-2.9	150.3	130.8	0.9	0.7
Chained (2012) dollars	-523.4	-528.2	-3.2	-3.3	108.9	91.5	0.7	0.6
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars	147.9	175.3	1.0	1.2	201.4	175.5	1.4	1.2
Chained (2012) dollars	91.4	116.5	0.7	0.9	159.2	136.2	1.2	1.1

Next release: December 23, 2020 at 8:30 A.M. EST
Personal Income and Outlays: November 2020

Full Release & Tables (PDF)

Tables Only (Excel)

Release Highlights (PDF)

Historical Comparisons (PDF)

Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income (PDF)

Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income (Excel)

Personal Income

Marissa Crawford

(301) 278-9729

piniwd@bea.gov

PCE Goods

Kyle Brown

301-278-9086

pce@bea.gov

PCE Services

Jeff Barnett

301-278-9663

pce@bea.gov

News Media

Jeannine Aversa

(301) 278-9003

Jeannine.Aversa@bea.gov

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NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

Definitions

Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.

Disposable personal income e is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons” who reside in the United States.

Personal outlays is the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments.

Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes.

The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.

Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.”

Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.

For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.

Statistical conventions

Annual rates. Monthly and quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR). Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For detail, see the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?”

Calendar years and quarters. Unless noted otherwise, annual data are presented on a calendar-year basis (i.e., covering January through December). Quarterly data are presented on a calendar-quarter basis (i.e., Q1 = January, February, March; Q2 = April, May, June; Q3 = July, August, September; Q4 = October, November, December).

Month-to-month percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are not annualized.

Quarter-to-quarter percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual rates. For detail, see the FAQ “How is average annual growth calculated?” and “Why does BEA publish percent changes in quarterly series at annual rates?”

Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2012). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisherchained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (months for monthly data, quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). For details on the calculation of quantity and price indexes, see Chapter 4: Estimating Methods in the NIPA Handbook.

Chained-dollar values are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2012) and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. In tables that display chaineddollar values, a "residual" line shows the difference between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.