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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2020

BEA 20—54

Personal Income and Outlays, September 2020

Personal income increased $170.3 billion (0.9 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $150.3 billion (0.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $201.4 billion (1.4 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.7 percent in September and Real PCE increased 1.2 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent (table 9). Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on September 2020 Personal Income and Outlays

The September estimate for personal income and outlays was impacted by the response to the spread of COVID-19. Federal economic recovery payments slowed, as pandemic-related assistance programs continued to wind down. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income.

The increase in personal income in September reflected increases in proprietors’ income, compensation of employees, and rental income of persons that were partly offset by a decrease in government social benefits (table 3). Within compensation, government wage and salary disbursements decreased $7.4 billion in September, following an increase of $23.9 billion in August. Temporary and intermittent Census decennial workers boosted government wages and salaries by $9.3 billion in September after adding $10.8 billion in August. Within government social benefits, unemployment insurance benefits decreased while “other” social benefits increased. Within unemployment insurance, the leading contributor was a decrease in Pandemic Unemployment Compensation, which provided weekly supplemental payments of $600 that expired on July 31. Within “other” social benefits, there was an increase in Lost Wages Supplemental Payments, a Federal Emergency Management Administration program that provides wage assistance to individuals impacted by the pandemic.

The $159.2 billion increase in real PCE in September reflected an increase of $109.9 billion in spending for goods and a $61.0 billion increase in spending for services (table 7). Within goods, clothing and footwear as well as motor vehicles and parts (led by new motor vehicles) were the leading contributors to the increase. Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were spending for health care (led by outpatient services) as well as recreation services (led by membership clubs, sports centers, parks, theaters, and museums). Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found on Table 2.4.6U.

	2020
	May.	Jun.	July.	Aug.	Sept.
	Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:
Current dollars	-4.2	-1.2	0.9	-2.5	0.9
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	-4.8	-1.5	0.9	-2.9	0.9
Chained (2012) dollars	-5.0	-2.0	0.6	-3.2	0.7
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
Current dollars	8.7	6.5	1.5	1.0	1.4
Chained (2012) dollars	8.5	5.9	1.3	0.7	1.2
Price indexes:
PCE	0.2	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.2
PCE, excluding food and energy	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2
Price indexes:	Percent change from month one year ago
PCE	0.5	0.9	1.0	1.3	1.4
PCE, excluding food and energy	1.0	1.1	1.3	1.4	1.5

Personal outlays increased $217.5 billion in September (table 3). Personal saving was $2.51 trillion in September and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 14.3 percent (table 1).

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for July and August. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE, are shown below.

	Change from preceding month
	July				August
	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised
	(Billions of dollars)		(Percent)		(Billions of dollars)		(Percent)
Personal income:
Current dollars	91.9	185.5	0.5	0.9	-543.5	-496.0	-2.7	-2.5
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	62.3	152.8	0.3	0.9	-570.9	-525.5	-3.2	-2.9
Chained (2012) dollars	-5.9	93.9	0.0	0.6	-562.1	-523.4	-3.5	-3.2
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars	213.9	214.4	1.5	1.5	141.1	147.9	1.0	1.0
Chained (2012) dollars	143.6	158.7	1.1	1.3	86.1	91.4	0.7	0.7

Next release: November 25, 2020 at 10:00 A.M. EST
Personal Income and Outlays: October 2020

Personal Income and Outlays Release Dates in 2021
Estimate	Release Date
December 2020	January 29, 2021
January 2021	February 26, 2021
February 2021	March 26, 2021
March 2021	April 30, 2021
April 2021	May 28, 2021
May 2021	June 25, 2021
June 2021	July 30, 2021
July 2021	August 27, 2021
August 2021	October 1, 2021
September 2021	October 29, 2021
October 2021	November 24, 2021
November 2021	December 23, 2021

Full Release & Tables (PDF)

Tables Only (Excel)

Release Highlights (PDF)

Historical Comparisons (PDF)

Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income (PDF)

Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income (Excel)

Personal Income

Lisa Mataloni

301-278-9083

piniwd@bea.gov

PCE Goods

Kyle Brown

301-278-9086

pce@bea.gov

PCE Services

Jeff Barnett

301-278-9663

pce@bea.gov

News Media

Jeannine Aversa

(301) 278-9003

Jeannine.Aversa@bea.gov

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NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

Definitions

Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.

Disposable personal income e is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons” who reside in the United States.

Personal outlays is the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments.

Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes.

The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.

Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.”

Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.

For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.

Statistical conventions

Annual rates. Monthly and quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR). Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For detail, see the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?”

Calendar years and quarters. Unless noted otherwise, annual data are presented on a calendar-year basis (i.e., covering January through December). Quarterly data are presented on a calendar-quarter basis (i.e., Q1 = January, February, March; Q2 = April, May, June; Q3 = July, August, September; Q4 = October, November, December).

Month-to-month percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are not annualized.

Quarter-to-quarter percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual rates. For detail, see the FAQ “How is average annual growth calculated?” and “Why does BEA publish percent changes in quarterly series at annual rates?”

Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2012). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisherchained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (months for monthly data, quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). For details on the calculation of quantity and price indexes, see Chapter 4: Estimating Methods in the NIPA Handbook.

Chained-dollar values are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2012) and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. In tables that display chaineddollar values, a "residual" line shows the difference between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.