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News Release

EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, Tuesday, July 31, 2018
18-39

Personal Income and Outlays, June 2018
Comprehensive Update: 1929 Through May 2018

Personal income increased $71.7 billion (0.4 percent) in June according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $65.3 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $57.1 billion (0.4 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.3 percent in June and Real PCE increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

  2018
  Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun.
  Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:
Current dollars 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
Chained (2009) dollars 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
Current dollars -0.1 -0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4
Chained (2009) dollars -0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3
Price indexes:
PCE 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
PCE, excluding food and energy 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1
Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago
PCE 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.2
PCE, excluding food and energy 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9

The increase in personal income in June primarily reflected increases in wages and salaries and personal dividend income (table 3).

The $39.7 billion increase in real PCE in June primarily reflected an increase of $36.4 billion in spending for services. The largest contributor to the increase was spending for food services and accommodations (table 7). Spending for goods increased $1.3 billion. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found in Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays increased $62.7 billion in June (table 3). Personal saving was $1,049.7 billion in June and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 6.8 percent (table 1).

 

Comprehensive Update of the National Income and Product Accounts
The estimates released today also reflect the results of the 15th comprehensive update of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs). The updated estimates reflect previously announced improvements, and include the introduction of new not seasonally adjusted estimates for GDP, GDI and their major components. For more information, see the Technical Note. Revised NIPA table stubs, initial results, and background materials are available on the BEA Web site.

Comprehensive Update of the National Income and Product Accounts

Comprehensive updates of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs), which are conducted about every five years, are an important part of BEA’s regular process for improving and modernizing its accounts to keep pace with the ever-changing U.S. economy. Updates incorporate newly available and more comprehensive source data, as well as improved estimation methodologies. The timespan for this year's comprehensive update is 1929 through May 2018.

With the release of these updated statistics, most NIPA tables are available on BEA's Web site (www.bea.gov). A complete schedule of the table release plan is also available on BEA’s Web site. An article describing the results will be published in the September 2018 issue of BEA’s monthly journal, the Survey of Current Business.

Updates

Revisions to annual estimates of personal income and outlays for 2013 through 2017 are shown in table 12. Revised and previously published monthly estimates of personal income, DPI, PCE, personal saving as a percentage of DPI, real DPI, and real PCE are shown in table 13. Revised and previously published annual and quarterly estimates are shown in table 14.

Personal income was revised up $107.4 billion, or 0.8 percent in 2013; $173.6 billion, or 1.2 percent in 2014; $166.6 billion, or 1.1 percent in 2015; $196.4 billion, or 1.2 percent in 2016; and $401.9 billion, or 2.4 percent in 2017.

  • For 2013, the revision to personal income primarily reflected a $118.3 billion upward revision to nonfarm proprietors’ income.
  • For 2014, the revision to personal income primarily reflected a $129.9 billion upward revision to nonfarm proprietors’ income and a $44.5 billion revision to personal interest income.
  • For 2015, the revision to personal income primarily reflected a $100.4 billion upward revision to nonfarm proprietors’ income and a $70.8 billion revision to personal interest income.
  • For 2016, the revision to personal income primarily reflected a $113.2 billion revision to personal dividend income and a $83.1 billion revision to nonfarm proprietors’ income.
  • For 2017, the revision to personal income primarily reflected a $143.3 billion revision to personal dividend income, a $111.2 billion revision to nonfarm proprietors’ income, a $100.6 billion revision to wages and salaries, and a $45.9 billion revision to personal interest income.

Revisions to nonfarm proprietors’ income for 2007-2017 primarily reflect revisions to estimates of underreported income. Estimates of underreported income for nonfarm proprietors are revised based on newly available Internal Revenue Service (IRS) tax gap data, which is a component of the IRS’ National Research Program. These adjustments to IRS source data are designed to correct for the effects of taxpayer underreporting. Table 7.14 shows the adjustment for misreporting on income tax returns.

Revisions to personal dividend income in 2016 and 2017 primarily reflect the incorporation of newly available IRS Statistics of Income data. The personal saving rate was revised up 1.4 percentage points to 6.4 percent in 2013, up 1.6 percentage points to 7.3 percent in 2014, up 1.5 percentage points to 7.6 percent in 2015, up 1.8 percentage points to 6.7 percent in 2016, and up 3.3 percentage points to 6.7 percent in 2017. From 2012 to 2017, the average annual rate of growth of real disposable personal income was revised up 0.4 percentage point from 1.8 percent to 2.2 percent.

QCEW Included in the First Quarter of 2018
BEA’s data on wages and salaries for the first quarter of 2018 were based on expedited information from state employment offices across the country. BEA acknowledges and appreciates the special efforts by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with the assistance of these state employment offices, in providing preliminary data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for the first quarter..

Next release: August 30, 2018 at 8:30 A.M. EDT

Personal Income and Outlays: July 2018