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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, Monday, October 29, 2018

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Personal Income and Outlays, September 2018

Personal income increased $35.7 billion (0.2 percent) in September according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $29.1 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $53.0 billion (0.4 percent).

Real DPI increased 0.1 percent in September and Real PCE increased 0.3 percent. The PCE price index
increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

	2018
	May	Jun	Jul.	Aug.	Sept.
	Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:
Current dollars	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.2
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.2
Chained (2012) dollars	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
Current dollars	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.4
Chained (2012) dollars	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.3
Price indexes:
PCE	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
PCE, excluding food and energy	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.0	0.2
Price indexes:	Percent change from month one year ago
PCE	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.2	2.0
PCE, excluding food and energy	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0

The increase in personal income in September primarily reflected increases in wages and salaries, government social benefits to persons, and rental income of persons that were partially offset by a decrease in proprietors’ income (table 3).

The $33.2 billion increase in real PCE in September reflected an increase of $33.5 billion in spending for goods and a $3.5 billion increase in spending for services (table 7). Within goods, motor vehicles and parts was the leading contributor to the increase, with strong contribution from recreational goods and vehicles. Within services, the largest contributor to the increase was spending for health care that was more than offset by a decrease in spending for food services and accommodations. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found in Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays increased $57.9 billion in September (table 3). Personal saving was $975.7 billion in September, and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 6.2 percent (table 1).

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for July and August. The percent change from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE -- revised and previously published in last month's release -- are shown below.

	Change from preceding month
	July				August
	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised
	(Billions of dollars)		(Percent)		(Billions of dollars)		(Percent)
Personal income:
Current dollars	51.9	56.4	0.3	0.3	60.3	67.0	0.3	0.4
Disposable Personal income:
Current dollars	45.5	46.0	0.3	0.3	51.4	55.4	0.3	0.4
Chained (2012) dollars	22.8	22.7	0.2	0.2	31.8	35.8	0.2	0.2
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars	62.7	65.3	0.4	0.5	46.4	64.9	0.3	0.5
Chained (2012) dollars	40.6	42.6	0.3	0.3	28.7	46.1	0.2	0.4

Next release: November 29, 2018 at 8:30 A.M. EST
Personal Income and Outlays: October 2018

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Personal Income

James Rankin

(301) 278-9087

piniwd@bea.gov

PCE Services

Harvey Davis

(301) 278-9719

pce@bea.gov

News Media

Jeannine Aversa

(301) 278-9003

Jeannine.Aversa@bea.gov

Resources

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NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

Definitions

Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.

Disposable personal income is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons” who reside in the United States.

Personal outlays is the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments.

Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes.

The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.

Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.”

Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.

For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.

Statistical conventions

Annual rates. Monthly and quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR). Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For detail, see the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?”

Month-to-month percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are not annualized.

Quarter-to-quarter percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual rates. For detail, see the FAQ “How is average annual growth calculated?”

Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2012). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (months for monthly data, quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). For details on the calculation of quantity and price indexes, see Chapter 4: Estimating Methods in the NIPA Handbook.

Chained-dollar values are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2012) and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. In tables that display chained-dollar values, a "residual" line shows the difference between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.