Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2019 (Advance Estimate)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the third quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 27, 2019.
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, residential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and exports that were partly offset by negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).
The deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected decelerations in PCE, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, and a larger decrease in nonresidential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, and upturns in exports and in residential fixed investment.
Current dollar GDP increased 3.5 percent, or $185.6 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $21.53 trillion. In the second quarter, GDP increased 4.7 percent, or $241.4 billion (tables 1 and 3).
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.4 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.2 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent.
Current-dollar personal income increased $172.8 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $244.2 billion in the second quarter. The deceleration reflected a downturn in personal income receipts on assets and decelerations in compensation and in personal current transfer receipts that were partly offset by an acceleration in proprietors’ income (table 8).
Disposable personal income increased $181.7 billion, or 4.5 percent, in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $192.6 billion, or 4.8 percent, in the second quarter. Real disposable personal income increased 2.9 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent.
Personal saving was $1.34 trillion in the third quarter, compared with $1.32 trillion in the second quarter. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 8.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with 8.0 percent in the second quarter.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
Information on the source data and key assumptions used for unavailable source data in the advance estimate is provided in a Technical Note that is posted with the news release on BEA’s Web site. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.
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Next release: November 27, 2019 at 8:30 A.M. EST
Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2019 (Second Estimate)
Corporate Profits, Third Quarter 2019 (Preliminary Estimate)
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|Release Dates in 2020|
|Estimate||2019 Q4 and
|2020 Q1||2020 Q2||2020 Q3|
|Gross Domestic Product|
|Advance Estimate||January 30, 2020||April 29, 2020||July 30, 2020||October 29, 2020|
|Second Estimate||February 27, 2020||May 28, 2020||August 27, 2020||November 25, 2020|
|Third Estimate||March 26, 2020||June 25, 2020||September 30, 2020||December 22, 2020|
|Preliminary Estimate||---||May 28, 2020||August 27, 2020||November 25, 2020|
|Revised Estimate||March 26, 2020||June 25, 2020||September 30, 2020||December 22, 2020|