Gross Domestic Product, Third quarter 2019 (third estimate); Corporate Profits, Third quarter 2019 (revised estimate)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the third quarter of 2019 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 2.1 percent. With the third estimate for the third quarter, upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment were offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter reflected positive contributions from PCE, federal government spending, residential investment, exports, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from nonresidential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).
The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected a smaller decrease in private inventory investment and upturns in exports and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by decelerations in PCE, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, and a larger decrease in nonresidential fixed investment.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.9 percent in the second quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in the second quarter (table 1).
Current‑dollar GDP increased 3.8 percent, or $202.3 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $21.54 trillion. In the second quarter, GDP increased 4.7 percent, or $241.4 billion (tables 1 and 3).
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.4 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.5 percent, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 2.1 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent.
Updates to GDP
The percent change in real GDP in the third quarter was unrevised. Upward revisions to PCE and nonresidential fixed investment were offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. For more information, see the Technical Note. A detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file (available at 10:00 A.M. today) is also posted for each release. For information on updates to GDP, see the "Additional Information" section that follows.
|Advance Estimate||Second Estimate||Third Estimate|
|(Percent change from preceding quarter)|
|Average of Real GDP and Real GDI||…||2.3||2.1|
|Gross domestic purchases price index||1.4||1.4||1.4|
|PCE price index||1.5||1.5||1.5|
|PCE price index excluding food and energy||2.2||2.1||2.1|
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $4.7 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $75.8 billion in the second quarter (table 10).
Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $4.7 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $2.5 billion in the second quarter. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $5.5 billion, in contrast to an increase of $34.7 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits increased $5.5 billion, compared with an increase of $38.7 billion. In the third quarter, receipts decreased $10.0 billion, and payments decreased $15.5 billion.
* * *
Next release: January 30, 2020 at 8:30 A.M. EST
Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2019 (Advance Estimate)
* * *
|Release Dates in 2020|
|Estimate||2019 Q4 and
|2020 Q1||2020 Q2||2020 Q3|
|Gross Domestic Product|
|Advance Estimate||January 30, 2020||April 29, 2020||July 30, 2020||October 29, 2020|
|Second Estimate||February 27, 2020||May 28, 2020||August 27, 2020||November 25, 2020|
|Third Estimate||March 26, 2020||June 25, 2020||September 30, 2020||December 22, 2020|
|Preliminary Estimate||---||May 28, 2020||August 27, 2020||November 25, 2020|
|Revised Estimate||March 26, 2020||June 25, 2020||September 30, 2020||December 22, 2020|