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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, FRIDAY, June 26, 2020

BEA 20—30

Personal Income and Outlays: May 2020

Personal income decreased $874.2 billion (4.2 percent) in May according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $911.1 billion (4.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $994.5 billion (8.2 percent).

Real DPI decreased 5.0 percent in May and Real PCE increased 8.1 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Impact on May 2020 Personal Income and Outlays

The May estimate for personal income and outlays was impacted by the response to the spread of COVID-19. Federal economic recovery payments continued but were at a lower level than in April, and government “stay-at-home” orders were partially lifted in May. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate for May because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see the “highlights” file and the Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income table.

The decrease in personal income in May primarily reflected a decrease in government social benefits to persons as payments made to individuals from federal economic recovery programs in response to the COVID-19 pandemic continued, but at a lower level than in April (table 3). For more information, see “How are the economic impact payments for individuals authorized by the CARES Act of 2020 recorded in the NIPAs?”.

	2020
	Jan.	Feb.	Mar.	Apr.	May
	Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:
Current dollars	0.6	0.5	-2.2	10.8	-4.2
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	0.6	0.5	-2.1	13.1	-4.9
Chained (2012) dollars	0.5	0.4	-1.8	13.6	-5.0
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
Current dollars	0.4	0.0	-6.6	-12.6	8.2
Chained (2012) dollars	0.3	-0.1	-6.4	-12.2	8.1
Price indexes:
PCE	0.1	0.1	-0.2	-0.5	0.1
PCE, excluding food and energy	0.2	0.2	-0.1	-0.4	0.1
Price indexes:	Percent change from month one year ago
PCE	1.8	1.8	1.3	0.6	0.5
PCE, excluding food and energy	1.7	1.8	1.7	1.0	1.0

Partially offsetting the decrease in other government social benefits was an increase in unemployment insurance benefits, based primarily on unemployment claims data from the Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration. For more information, see “How will the expansion of unemployment benefits in response to the COVID-19 pandemic be recorded in the NIPAs?”.

The $892.6 billion increase in real PCE in May reflected an increase of $590.4 billion in spending for goods and a $363.8 billion increase in spending for services (table 7). Within goods, spending on motor vehicles and parts as well as recreational goods and vehicles were the leading contributors to the increase. Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were spending for health care as well as food services and accommodations. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.6U.

Personal outlays increased $989.9 billion in May (table 3). Personal saving was $4.12 trillion in May and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 23.2 percent (table 1).

Upcoming Annual Update of the National Income and Product Accounts

BEA will release results from the 2020 annual update of the National Income and Product Accounts on July 30, 2020, in conjunction with the advance estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2020. For estimates of real GDP and its major components, the span of the update will cover the most recent five years (2015-2019) and the first quarter of 2020. Estimates of income and saving will be subject to revision from 1999 through the first quarter of 2020. More information on the 2020 annual update is included in the May Survey of Current Business article, “GDP and the Economy.”

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for January through April. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE, are shown below.

	Change from preceding month
	March				April
	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised
	(Billions of dollars)		(Percent)		(Billions of dollars)		(Percent)
Personal income:
Current dollars	-413.8	-422.9	-2.2	-2.2	1,965.9	2,018.8	10.5	10.8
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	-349.0	-353.1	-2.1	-2.1	2,127.8	2,167.9	12.9	13.1
Chained (2012) dollars	-280.9	-281.9	-1.8	-1.8	2,005.4	2,039.9	13.4	13.6
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars	-1,031.7	-988.5	-6.9	-6.6	-1,893.5	-1,757.6	-13.6	-12.6
Chained (2012) dollars	-902.7	-861.3	-6.7	-6.4	-1,662.1	-1,539.8	-13.2	-12.2

Next release: July 31, 2020 at 8:30 A.M. EDT
Personal Income and Outlays: June 2020

Full Release & Tables (PDF)

Tables Only (Excel)

Release Highlights (PDF)

Historical Comparison (PDF)

Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income - PDF

Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income - XLSX

Personal Income

Marissa Crawford

(301) 278-9729

piniwd@bea.gov

PCE Goods

Kyle Brown

301-278-9086

pce@bea.gov

PCE Services

Jeff Barnett

301-278-9663

pce@bea.gov

Media (BEA)

Connie O'Connell

301-278-9003

Connie.OConnell@bea.gov

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NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

Definitions

Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.

Disposable personal income e is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons” who reside in the United States.

Personal outlays is the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments.

Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes.

The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.

Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.”

Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.

For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.

Statistical conventions

Annual rates. Monthly and quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR). Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For detail, see the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?”

Calendar years and quarters. Unless noted otherwise, annual data are presented on a calendar-year basis (i.e., covering January through December). Quarterly data are presented on a calendar-quarter basis (i.e., Q1 = January, February, March; Q2 = April, May, June; Q3 = July, August, September; Q4 = October, November, December).

Month-to-month percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are not annualized.

Quarter-to-quarter percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual rates. For detail, see the FAQ “How is average annual growth calculated?”

Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2012). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisherchained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (months for monthly data, quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). For details on the calculation of quantity and price indexes, see Chapter 4: Estimating Methods in the NIPA Handbook.

Chained-dollar values are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2012) and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. In tables that display chaineddollar values, a "residual" line shows the difference between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.

List of Personal Income and Outlays News Release Tables

Table 1. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Months)

Table 2. Personal Income and Its Disposition (Years and Quarters)

Table 3. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change from Preceding Period (Months)

Table 4. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Change from Preceding Period (Years and Quarters)

Table 5. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change from Preceding Period (Months)

Table 6. Personal Income and Its Disposition, Percent Change from Preceding Period (Years and Quarters)

Table 7. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product (Months)

Table 8. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures by Major Type of Product (Years and Quarters)

Table 9. Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Level and Percent Change from Preceding Period (Months)

Table 10. Real Disposable Personal Income and Real Personal Consumption Expenditures: Percent Change from Month One Year Ago

Table 11. Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures: Percent Change from Month One Year Ago