Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2023 (Advance Estimate)
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent.
The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table 2).
The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods and services. Within goods, the leading contributor was motor vehicles and parts. Within services, the increase was led by health care and food services and accommodations. Within exports, an increase in goods (led by consumer goods, except food and automotive) was partly offset by a decrease in services (led by transport). Within federal government spending, the increase was led by nondefense spending. The increase in state and local government spending primarily reflected an increase in compensation of state and local government employees. Within nonresidential fixed investment, increases in structures and intellectual property products were partly offset by a decrease in equipment.
The decrease in private inventory investment was led by wholesale trade (notably, machinery, equipment, and supplies) and manufacturing (led by other transportation equipment as well as petroleum and coal products). Within residential fixed investment, the leading contributor to the decrease was new single-family construction. Within imports, the increase reflected an increase in goods (mainly durable consumer goods and automotive vehicles, engines, and parts).
Compared to the fourth quarter, the deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a slowdown in nonresidential fixed investment. These movements were partly offset by an acceleration in consumer spending, an upturn in exports, and a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment. Imports turned up.
Current‑dollar GDP increased 5.1 percent at an annual rate, or $327.9 billion, in the first quarter, to a level of $26.47 trillion. In the fourth quarter, GDP increased 6.6 percent, or $414.1 billion (tables 1 and 3).
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 4.2 percent, compared with an increase of 3.7 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 4.9 percent, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent.
Current-dollar personal income increased $278.9 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $398.8 billion in the fourth quarter (table 8). The increase in the first quarter primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries) and government social benefits.
Disposable personal income increased $571.2 billion, or 12.5 percent, in the first quarter, compared with an increase of $403.0 billion, or 8.9 percent, in the fourth quarter. The increase in the first quarter reflected an increase in personal income and a decrease in personal current taxes.
Real disposable personal income increased 8.0 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 5.0 percent in the fourth.
Personal saving was $946.2 billion in the first quarter, compared with $758.8 billion in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with 4.0 percent in the fourth.
Source Data for the Advance Estimate
The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. Information on the data and key assumptions used in the advance estimate is provided in a Technical Note and a detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file posted with the release. The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 25, 2023. For information on updates to GDP, refer to the "Additional Information" section that follows.
* * *
Next release, May 25, 2023, at 8:30 a.m. EDT
Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate)
Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate)
First Quarter 2023
* * *