EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, Thursday, March 1, 2018
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|Technical:||Brian Smith||(301) 278-9625||(Personal Income)||firstname.lastname@example.org|
|Harvey Davis||(301) 278-9086||(PCE)||email@example.com|
|Mark Ludwick||(301) 278-9090||(Taxes and Government)||Mark.Ludwick@bea.gov|
|Media:||Jeannine Aversa||(301) 278-9003||Jeannine.Aversa@bea.gov|
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS, JANUARY 2018
Personal income increased $64.7 billion (0.4 percent) in January according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $134.8 billion (0.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $31.2 billion (0.2 percent). Real DPI increased 0.6 percent in January and Real PCE decreased 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. 2017 2018 Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Percent change from preceding month Personal income: Current dollars 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 Disposable personal income: Current dollars 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 Chained (2009) dollars 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE): Current dollars 1.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 Chained (2009) dollars 0.6 0.2 0.5 0.2 -0.1 Price indexes: PCE 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 PCE, excluding food and energy 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 Price indexes: Percent change from month one year ago PCE 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 PCE, excluding food and energy 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 BOX.______________________________________________ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wage Data Included in the Third Quarter of 2017 This news release includes revised estimates of wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance for July through September 2017 (third quarter). These estimates reflect the incorporation of the most recently available third-quarter wage and salary tabulations from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. __________________________________________________ BOX.______________________________________________ Impacts of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Increases in the January estimates of disposable personal income and the personal saving rate mostly result from a decrease in personal current taxes, which reflect the effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). BEA estimates that the TCJA reduced personal current taxes by $115.5 billion at an annual rate. BEA’s preliminary estimates of the effects of the TCJA are based in part on projections prepared by the Treasury Department’s Office of Tax Analysis. For more information on the TCJA’s effects on personal taxes, please see “How will the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act impact personal taxes?” January estimates of wages and salaries were adjusted up by $30.0 billion to account for bonuses paid by businesses that are not included in the monthly source data in the Current Employment Statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This adjustment reflects one-time bonuses reported publicly in response to the TCJA and was derived based on news releases covering estimates of the number of employees receiving bonuses and payment amounts. BEA will release QCEW-based estimates of wages and salaries, that will include both regular and TCJA-related bonus activity, for the first quarter of 2018 on July 27, 2018. __________________________________________________ The increase in personal income in January primarily reflected increases in wages and salaries and Social Security benefits that were partially offset by an increase in contributions for government social insurance, a subtraction in the calculation of personal income (table 3). The $17.0 billion decrease in real PCE in January reflected a decrease of $24.6 billion in spending for goods and a partially offsetting $4.8 billion increase in spending for services (table 7). Within goods, new motor vehicle sales was the leading contributor to the decrease. Detailed information on monthly real PCE spending can be found in Table 2.3.6U. Personal outlays increased $33.7 billion in January (table 3). Personal saving was $464.4 billion in January and the personal saving rate, personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income, was 3.2 percent (table 1). 2017 Personal Income and Outlays Personal income (table 6) increased 3.1 percent in 2017 (that is, from the 2016 annual level to the 2017 annual level), compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in 2016. DPI increased 2.9 percent in 2017 compared with an increase of 2.6 percent in 2016. In 2017, PCE increased 4.5 percent, compared with an increase of 4.0 percent in 2016. Real DPI increased 1.2 percent in 2017, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in 2016. Real PCE (table 8) increased 2.7 percent, the same increase as in 2016. Updates to Personal Income and Outlays Estimates have been updated for July through December. The percent change from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2009) dollar DPI and PCE -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below. Change from preceding month November December Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised (Billions of dollars) (Percent) (Billions of dollars) (Percent) Personal income: Current dollars 50.4 56.1 0.3 0.3 58.7 63.2 0.4 0.4 Disposable personal income: Current dollars 37.6 39.9 0.3 0.3 48.0 52.2 0.3 0.4 Chained (2009) dollars 2.6 8.8 0.0 0.1 28.1 27.4 0.2 0.2 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars 101.9 92.0 0.8 0.7 54.2 53.1 0.4 0.4 Chained (2009) dollars 61.1 56.4 0.5 0.5 34.4 29.3 0.3 0.2 Next release: March 29, 2018 at 8:30 A.M. EDT Personal Income and Outlays: February 2018 Additional Information Resources Additional Resources available at www.bea.gov: • Stay informed about BEA developments by reading the BEA blog, signing up for BEA’s email subscription service, or following BEA on Twitter @BEA_News. • Historical time series for these estimates can be accessed in BEA’s Interactive Data Application. • Access BEA data by registering for BEA’s Data Application Programming Interface (API). • For more on BEA’s statistics, see our monthly online journal, the Survey of Current Business. • BEA's news release schedule • NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts Definitions Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses. Disposable personal income is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons” who reside in the United States. Personal outlays is the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments. Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes. The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income. Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.” Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes. For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts. Statistical conventions Annual rates. Monthly and quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR). Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For detail, see the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?” Month-to-month percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are not annualized. Quarter-to-quarter percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual rates. For detail, see the FAQ “How is average annual growth calculated?” Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2009). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). “Real” dollar series are calculated by multiplying the published quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2009) and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year.