Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, and Corporate Profits (Revised), Third Quarter 2022
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent.
The "third" estimate of GDP released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.9 percent. The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. For more information, refer to "Updates to GDP."
The increase in real GDP for the third quarter reflected increases in exports, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending, that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports decreased (table 2).
The increase in exports reflected increases in both goods and services. Within exports of goods, the leading contributors to the increase were industrial supplies and materials (notably nondurable goods), "other" exports of goods, and nonautomotive capital goods. Within exports of services, the increase was led by "other" business services and travel.
Within consumer spending, an increase in services (led by health care and "other" services) was partly offset by a decrease in goods (led by motor vehicles and parts as well as food and beverages). Within nonresidential fixed investment, increases in equipment and intellectual property products were partly offset by a decrease in structures. The increase in state and local government spending was led by increases in investment in structures and in compensation of state and local government employees. The increase in federal government spending was led by defense spending.
The decrease in residential fixed investment was led by new single-family construction and brokers' commissions. Within private inventory investment, the decrease was led by retail trade (mainly other general merchandise stores). Within imports, the decrease primarily reflected a decrease in imports of goods (notably consumer goods).
Real GDP turned up in the third quarter, increasing 3.2 percent after decreasing 0.6 percent in the second quarter. The upturn primarily reflected accelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and consumer spending, a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, and upturns in state and local as well as federal government spending that were partly offset by a larger decrease in residential fixed investment. Imports turned down.
Current‑dollar GDP increased 7.7 percent at an annual rate, or $475.5 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $25.72 trillion (table 1 and table 3), an upward revision of $25.0 billion from the previous estimate. More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file on BEA's website.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 4.8 percent in the third quarter (table 4), an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The PCE price index increased 4.3 percent, unchanged from the prior estimate. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 4.7 percent, revised up 0.1 percentage point.
Current-dollar personal income increased $283.1 billion in the third quarter, a downward revision of $8.1 billion from the previous estimate. The increase primarily reflected increases in compensation (led by private wages and salaries), personal interest income, and nonfarm proprietors' income (table 8).
Disposable personal income increased $242.4 billion, or 5.4 percent, in the third quarter, an upward revision of $6.6 billion from the previous estimate. Real disposable personal income increased 1.0 percent, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point.
Personal saving was $507.7 billion in the third quarter, a downward revision of $12.9 billion from the previous estimate. The personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 2.7 percent in the third quarter, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point.
Gross Domestic Income and Corporate Profits
Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 0.8 percent in the third quarter, an upward revision of 0.5 percentage point from the previous estimate. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.0 percent in the third quarter, an upward revision of 0.4 percentage point (table 1).
Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) decreased $1.3 billion in the third quarter, an upward revision of $30.3 billion (table 10).
Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased $1.8 billion in the third quarter, an upward revision of $31.1 billion. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased $16.1 billion, an upward revision of $10.0 billion. Rest-of-the-world profits decreased $15.5 billion, a downward revision of $10.8 billion. In the third quarter, receipts increased $1.0 billion, and payments increased $16.5 billion (table 10).
Updates to GDP
The 3.2 percent increase in third-quarter real GDP was 0.3 percentage point higher than previously estimated in the "second" estimate. Upward revisions to consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending were partly offset by downward revisions to private inventory investment and exports. For more information, refer to the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, refer to the "Additional Information" section that follows.
|Advance Estimate||Second Estimate||Third Estimate|
|(Percent change from preceding quarter)|
|Average of Real GDP and Real GDI||…||1.6||2.0|
|Gross domestic purchases price index||4.6||4.7||4.8|
|PCE price index||4.2||4.3||4.3|
|PCE price index excluding food and energy||4.5||4.6||4.7|
Real GDP by Industry
Today's release includes estimates of GDP by industry, or value added—a measure of an industry's contribution to GDP. In the third quarter, private services-producing industries increased 4.9 percent, government increased 0.6 percent, and private goods-producing industries decreased 1.3 percent (table 12). Overall, 16 of 22 industry groups contributed to the third-quarter increase in real GDP.
- Within private services-producing industries, the leading contributors to the increase were information; professional, scientific, and technical services; and real estate and rental and leasing. Notable offsets include decreases in utilities and in finance and insurance.
- The increase in government reflected an increase in state and local government that was partly offset by a decrease in federal government.
- Within private goods-producing industries, the decrease was led by construction which was partly offset by an increase in mining.
Gross Output by Industry
Real gross output—principally a measure of an industry's sales or receipts, which includes sales to final users in the economy (GDP) and sales to other industries (intermediate inputs)—increased 2.5 percent in the third quarter. This reflected increases of 3.0 percent for private services-producing industries, 1.2 percent for private goods-producing industries, and 2.3 percent for government (table 16). Overall, 18 of 22 industry groups contributed to the increase in real gross output.
* * *
Next release, January 26, 2023, at 8:30 a.m. EST
Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) and Year 2022
* * *
|Release Dates in 2023|
|Estimate||2022 Q4 and
|2023 Q1||2023 Q2||2023 Q3|
|Gross Domestic Product|
|Advance Estimate||January 26, 2023||April 27, 2023||July 27, 2023||October 26, 2023|
|Second Estimate||February 23, 2023||May 25, 2023||August 30, 2023||November 29, 2023|
|Third Estimate||March 30, 2023||June 29, 2023||September 28, 2023||December 21, 2023|
|Gross Domestic Product by Industry||March 30, 2023||June 29, 2023||September 28, 2023||December 21, 2023|
|Preliminary Estimate||---||May 25, 2023||August 30, 2023||November 29, 2023|
|Revised Estimate||March 30, 2023||June 29, 2023||September 28, 2023||December 21, 2023|