Gross Domestic Product

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The growth rate was revised down 0.4 percentage point from the “initial” estimate released in February. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

When the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates the nation’s gross domestic product on March 28, it will officially be a “third estimate” – even though we’ve only estimated GDP for that quarter once before.

Wondering where the second estimate went? Don’t worry, we didn’t lose count. The unusual naming sequence reflects changes to our release schedule caused by the lapse in federal funding earlier this year. Many of the principal source data BEA uses to produce our first two estimates of GDP for each quarter were substantially delayed.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to produce new economic data for Puerto Rico this year that could lay the groundwork for later estimating the island’s gross domestic product.

BEA plans to develop and publish later this year estimates for specific components that would feed into Puerto Rico’s GDP, such as consumer spending, business investment, and trade in goods. Estimates for these components will cover 2012 through 2017 and will be available in current dollars and on an inflation-adjusted basis.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the “initial” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.4 percent.

Fourth-quarter GDP highlights
The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, business investment, exports, and inventory investment.

Wholesale trade; information; and finance and insurance were the leading contributors to the increase in U.S. economic growth in the third quarter of 2018. Overall, 19 of 22 industry groups contributed to the 3.4 percent increase in real GDP in the third quarter.

The estimates of GDP for Guam show that real GDP—GDP adjusted to remove price changes—increased 0.2 percent in 2017 after increasing 0.3 percent in 2016. For comparison, real GDP for the United States increased 2.2 percent in 2017 after increasing 1.6 percent in 2016.

The estimates of GDP for the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands show that real GDP—GDP adjusted to remove price changes—increased 25.1 percent in 2017, after increasing 28.2 percent in 2016. For comparison, real GDP for the United States (excluding the territories) increased 2.2 percent in 2017 after increasing 1.6 percent in 2016.

BEA’s annual gross domestic product by state report provides a crucial look into the health of states’ economies. Soon businesses, consumers, and policymakers will get a sneak peak at a more timely and frequent version of the report.

On August 20, we will release a quarterly look at state economic performance broken out by industry for the years 2005-2013. Like its annual cousin, this prototype quarterly GDP by state report will be conceptually consistent with BEA’s national data on economic output, allowing for comparisons across geographies and time.